The First Cut is the Deepest

The poor Washington Nationals. Not only do they have to deal with the history of defeatism in our nation's capital, and the history of defeatism inherent in a club that was the Montreal Expos, but they also have a low payroll, young players and a vote of no-confidence from Vegas odds-makers. And then they go out and get swept twice within their division to start the season. That's gotta hurt. Elimination #1.

Pre-Game Show: The Odds

Here are the current odds for teams to win the 2009 World Series. The usual suspects, with the understandable addition of the Tampa Bay Rays. It looks like the AL EAST is still the best division in the game and the AL CENTRAL is up for grabs. I expect you'll see more about the Orioles, Mariners and Pirates soon in this very space. First elimination is April 13.

New York Yankees 11/4
Chicago Cubs 11/2
Boston Red Sox 15/2
Philadelphia Phillies 17/2
Los Angeles Dodgers 10/1
New York Mets 10/1
Tampa Bay Rays 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 13/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 18/1
Minnesota Twins 20/1
Cleveland Indians 22/1
Chicago White Sox 25/1
Detroit Tigers 26/1
Milwaukee Brewers 30/1
Atlanta Braves 35/1
Oakland Athletics 35/1
Colorado Rockies 38/1
Florida Marlins 40/1
Houston Astros 40/1
San Francisco Giants 50/1
Toronto Blue Jays 60/1
Texas Rangers 70/1
Cincinnati Reds 80/1
Baltimore Orioles 100/1
Kansas City Royals 100/1
Washington Nationals 100/1
Seattle Mariners 100/1
San Diego Padres 100/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 150/1

The Darling Bucs of May

It's time once again to tell 25 guys they're not good enough. This particular set doesn't live that far away, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and they suffer from the curse of Andy Van Slyke. You see, after the Pirates lost a thrilling NLCS to the Atlanta Braves in 1992, they had a choice of which free agent to keep: Andy Van Slyke or Barry Bonds. Well, the choice was obvious. Bonds had hit .311 with a .456 OBP and was 30/30 that year. It was time to let him go. The Pirates have not had a winning season since, the longest streak in the majors. And even if they manage to pull it out this year, they won't win the World Series. Sorry, guys.

The Curse of Alex Rodriguez

Oh, Texas Rangers, what shall we do with you? Well, we can probably banish you to the "World Series - Not Happening" file. And we have been able to do that since you and your $252 million came into contact with Alex Rodriguez. And, y'know what? The Mariners are in the same boat. Come to think of it, the Yankees haven't won with him either.

I recently learned that Alex picked his #13 to honor his favorite football player, Dan Marino. Hmm... A player who is considered one of the best in the game who never wins a Championship. Am I seeing any similarities?

Victim #2

I suppose it's no surprise that the Washington Nationals are the next team to be eliminated from World Series contention. Since their 3-0 start they have won only 2 games while losing 14. A bright spot has been Tim Redding (of Churchville-Chili and Monroe Community College fame), who has 3 of those 5 wins, with a 3.27 ERA, lowest in the rotation. But the Nationals have 4 other teams to get through in order to win the division, including 3 good ones and the division leader. This will not be the year to bring a Championship to the nation's capital.

But maybe we can bring a Democrat.

Wow!

This is shaping up to be a tough season already. The team with the worst record was expected to have a spectacular year, and every team save 2 has at least 5 wins through the first two weeks of the season. There is a lot of bunching going on and parity seems to be the theme for the month of April. But a decision must be made. One team has to be the first team eliminated. And that team is going to be:

The San Francisco Giants. They have as much as admitted that they are in a rebuilding effort. They need to bide time to be able to dump some of the large ineffectual salaries that they've inherited so that they can afford some new, good talent. Which is why they're hanging onto pitchers like Tim Lincecum. This team is look toward the future.

They have been outscored by nearly two runs a game, and that includes their 5 wins. They rank last in the league in runs scored and On-Base Percentage. They were terrible last year, and even though he was a distraction, they miss Barry Bonds. I predict a last-place finish for the club, even if they aren't the first team officially eliminated.

Next week: Victim #2!

What it is

Welcome to World Series Survivor, where there can be only one.

This is a concept I started on my original blog, A Case of Murder, last season, as I was looking for content. It's easy. Each week (starting April 14!) I eliminate one team that I believe will not win the 2008 World Series. Over the course of six months I will eliminate all but one team. If I do it right, that last team standing will be the 2008 World Series Champion. If I don't do it right, the outcome will be much like last year, where my last team standing was the Cleveland Indians, and I had eliminated the Colorado Rockies in April. I hope to be better this year, unless the Royals have a coming out party and spoil the whole thing for me.